From
Is this the end of the art-market bubble? by Felix Saloman on the Reuters website.
"This is one reason why I’ve long said
that even if there is a bubble in the contemporary-art world (and I think there
is), it’s not a speculative bubble. The people spending millions of
dollars on trophy art aren’t buying to flip; the people selling aren’t selling
to make a fast buck. Rather, they’re selling because of one of the “three Ds”:
death, divorce, debt. The exceptions to this rule are dealers, of course, along
with a small number of collectors who are so active they start becoming
quasi-dealers in their own right. If you’re well connected in the art world and
willing to make an opportunistic purchase, then you’ll probably be willing to
make an opportunistic sale as well, when the price is right.
"But right now, I’m beginning to see
indications that things are changing: if you look at this month’s big
contemporary art auctions, you’ll see quite a lot of art being flipped,
including art being flipped by one of the biggest collectors of them all,
Stevie Cohen. According to Carol Vogel and Peter Lattman in the NYT,
Cohen is selling a Gerhard Richter which he bought from the Pace Gallery last
year, along with “about a dozen other pieces, mostly at Sotheby’s, that he
acquired in recent years at art fairs and auctions”.
Meanwhile, Carol Vogel at the New York Times in an article titled
Digging Into Deep Pockets at Auction says:
"It’s strange to think that just a
decade ago, Christie’s entire evening sale of postwar and contemporary art
totaled $62 million. On Nov. 12, during the second of the two big auction weeks
that start in New York on Monday night, Christie’s is offering one painting — a
Francis Bacon triptych — that is expected to bring $85 million. Its archrival,
Sotheby’s, has a 1963 Warhol that it anticipates will sell for $60 million to
$80 million.
And:
"After Christie’s record $495 million postwar
and contemporary art auction just six months ago, when buyers from all over the
world — New York and Doha, Beijing and São Paulo — competed on everything from
a Pollock drip painting to a classic canvas by Lichtenstein, seasoned
collectors like the hedge fund billionaire Steven A. Cohen, the newsprint
magnate Peter Brant and the musician Eric Clapton apparently thought it was
time to cash in before the good times end.
This season’s contemporary art catalogs are
as thick as doorstops, brimming with more paintings, drawings and sculptures
with estimates of over $20 million than ever before.
Link.
Then there's Kathryn Tulley at Forbes whose article is titled,
Contemporary Art: End of a Bubble or Already Burst?, cites statistics that suggest Salomon is behind the times in making predictions of a collapse in the market. She says the decline has been underway for a while.